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Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
AFTERMATH
I am sadly reminded today of my favorite John Wayne line, from Big Jake. After his estranged wife makes a fateful (and dangerous) decision, she asks for his input, to which The Duke replies:
"You decided alone. Now live it alone"
Today is sad not so much because of the fatefully bad, and horrendously uninformed decision that the electorate of this great country made yesterday - though it is horrile on so many different levels. It is sad because the idiots who elected Barack Obama will NOT have to "live it alone". The rest of us will have to live it right along with them.
It leaves me feeling like a rear-seat passenger in the car of a 16-year old who has had his license all of 4 days and is driving at high speed, at night, in the rain, in heavy traffic. You know how it is going to end up - a horrible, violent, deadly crash. But all you can do is cinch down your seat belt and hope you survive.
Or, to quote one more movie line:
"This is the kind of situation where something bad happens".
"You decided alone. Now live it alone"
Today is sad not so much because of the fatefully bad, and horrendously uninformed decision that the electorate of this great country made yesterday - though it is horrile on so many different levels. It is sad because the idiots who elected Barack Obama will NOT have to "live it alone". The rest of us will have to live it right along with them.
It leaves me feeling like a rear-seat passenger in the car of a 16-year old who has had his license all of 4 days and is driving at high speed, at night, in the rain, in heavy traffic. You know how it is going to end up - a horrible, violent, deadly crash. But all you can do is cinch down your seat belt and hope you survive.
Or, to quote one more movie line:
"This is the kind of situation where something bad happens".
Monday, October 20, 2008
Political Prescience.. or I Was Right
Way back in January, when there was still a whole gaggle of presidential candidates (from both parties) I felt that there was one guy and ONLY one guy, of the Republican group that group that had more than a snowball's chance in hell of actually winning in November. He had a way of connecting and a way of understanding the real people out there who make the country work. Sadly, he was sneered at (not one of the chattering class), pigeonholed (a nasty horrible bible-thumper), and wrongly defined by the "conservative" base as a closet Democrat. The (save for McCain, who was at least respectful) republican cognoscenti just couldn't suffer such a rube.
And above all, he had the AUDACITY to believe that the aforesaid real people knew what was actually HAPPENING in the economy. This served them as confirmation the he was truly clueless, because all of their friends said the economy was GREAT!!!!
Witness this exchange in the Republican debate from January 28th:
Governor Mike Huckabee doesn't sound like a rube anymore, does he?????
And above all, he had the AUDACITY to believe that the aforesaid real people knew what was actually HAPPENING in the economy. This served them as confirmation the he was truly clueless, because all of their friends said the economy was GREAT!!!!
Witness this exchange in the Republican debate from January 28th:
But let's look at those economic issues. A few months ago, when we were all in Dearborn, Michigan, your network was the sponsor with CNBC and MSNBC, and every one of us were asked, "How's the economy doing?" every one of my colleagues said, "It's doing great," and they gave all the numbers.
When they came to me, I know people acted like I was the only guy at the U.N. without a headset that night. But the truth is, I was the only guy on that stage who said it may be doing great if you're at the top. But if you talk to the people at the bottom of the economy, the people who are handling the bags, the people who are serving the food, you get a very different picture, because their health care costs are up dramatically.
The cost to educate their children are up. And the cost of their fuel has way outstripped any wage increase they've had.
Now, often we hear people talk about trickle-down economics, that if you have a wonderful surge in the economy that it eventually works it way down to all sectors. But there's another issue, too: there is a trickle-up impact when the economy begins to go sour. And if you pay attention to the people who are the single moms and the working people who barely get from paycheck to paycheck, you'd find out months in advance that this economy was headed for a downward turn. And that's what I think people need in the president, is somebody who understands the totality of the American family and not just the folks at the top.
Governor Mike Huckabee doesn't sound like a rube anymore, does he?????
Mass, Vacation, Etc...
I had the RARE pleasure of going on "vacation" last month. Vacation being 4 days at the beach, but it was (literally) the nicest four days of my life. The weather was perfect, the place was perfect, the kids were perfect... Absolutely amazing that it all worked out. Made all the sweeter by the fact that we had not had a break AT ALL in about four years. Every waking moment of every day since August of 2004 was either at work or taking care of the kids/house. My wife and I hired a babysitter once to go to the MEF Mass at Our Lady of Grace (3 hours), and once for dinner (3 hours).
From Friday morning until the following Wednesday morning, I didn't read the paper, or see or hear the news at all. A self-imposed news blackout which made for a blessedly peaceful weekend. Call it blissful ignorance if you'd like, but it worked.
In spite of all of the stress and economic doomsaying that has happened since, it hasn't gotten me down like it did before. I watch with interest and fascination, but with no personal anxiety whatsoever. Amazing what the human brain can cope with once you give it a chance to recover !!!
Mass was fascinating, though! As you see, I don't travel much and rarely if ever get to see mass outside of my home church and the aforementioned OLG. So Saturday evening, my wife, mother-in-law, myself, and the powerpuff girls attended a "bi-lingual" mass, at Holy Trinity Catholic Chapel. Needless to say "bi-lingual" meant it was nearly all in Spanish, but with an obviously non-spanish speaking priest, there were some oddities. The opening prayer was in English, but virtually everything else was in Spanish save for a few words here and there. The Gospel was read in Spanish, by a nun. Something I had never seen before. The homlily was in English, but interpreted real-time. The eucharistic prayer was English, but everything else from that point on was spanish, and led either by the same nun or another lay person.
All that said, the mass was WONDERFUL. There were altar boys, reverent and precise. And even all of the lay participants were reverent, precise and well practiced. The congregation was so young, so passionate and reverent and there were kids EVERYWHERE. I was more comfortable there than at my home church. The ushers gave out a very detailed spanish-english handout of all of the prayers and hymns, in order, which was very easy to follow. Allowing me to sing and pray along in spanish* with no trouble at all, though I know little spanish beyond what one hears on Dora the Explorer.
I want to go back....
* At the risk of sounding conceited, I have a gift of being able, with very little practice, to pronounce a foreign language for the most part as a native speaker. Naturally, "sight reading" in a foreign language has its limitations, but for the purpose of participating in mass, it works great.
From Friday morning until the following Wednesday morning, I didn't read the paper, or see or hear the news at all. A self-imposed news blackout which made for a blessedly peaceful weekend. Call it blissful ignorance if you'd like, but it worked.
In spite of all of the stress and economic doomsaying that has happened since, it hasn't gotten me down like it did before. I watch with interest and fascination, but with no personal anxiety whatsoever. Amazing what the human brain can cope with once you give it a chance to recover !!!
Mass was fascinating, though! As you see, I don't travel much and rarely if ever get to see mass outside of my home church and the aforementioned OLG. So Saturday evening, my wife, mother-in-law, myself, and the powerpuff girls attended a "bi-lingual" mass, at Holy Trinity Catholic Chapel. Needless to say "bi-lingual" meant it was nearly all in Spanish, but with an obviously non-spanish speaking priest, there were some oddities. The opening prayer was in English, but virtually everything else was in Spanish save for a few words here and there. The Gospel was read in Spanish, by a nun. Something I had never seen before. The homlily was in English, but interpreted real-time. The eucharistic prayer was English, but everything else from that point on was spanish, and led either by the same nun or another lay person.
All that said, the mass was WONDERFUL. There were altar boys, reverent and precise. And even all of the lay participants were reverent, precise and well practiced. The congregation was so young, so passionate and reverent and there were kids EVERYWHERE. I was more comfortable there than at my home church. The ushers gave out a very detailed spanish-english handout of all of the prayers and hymns, in order, which was very easy to follow. Allowing me to sing and pray along in spanish* with no trouble at all, though I know little spanish beyond what one hears on Dora the Explorer.
I want to go back....
* At the risk of sounding conceited, I have a gift of being able, with very little practice, to pronounce a foreign language for the most part as a native speaker. Naturally, "sight reading" in a foreign language has its limitations, but for the purpose of participating in mass, it works great.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Coming Soon.....
No one likes to be the bearer of bad news, but the truth sometimes hurts. I am not trying to be a doomsayer, just trying to warn the readers of this blog to get ready, or rather get as ready as you can. Not eveyone is in as volatile and vulnerable an industry as I am, but in the long run, that won't matter a whit. It may take a while until it gets to you, but it will get you eventually.
AND NOW, I ask my faithful audience to pray fervently that I am absolutely and completely wrong....
Meltdown.... procrastinated
Well, we have been watching intently the last six days (or more) as the house of smoke, mirrors, and paper that is the world of Wall Street unravels and collapses before our eyes. Comparisons to the 1930's, to the Resolution Trust Corporation, to the 1970's, etc., etc., etc. abound. They are all fundamentally flawed and fundamentally inadequate to describe the mess in which we find ourselves.
Fundamentally flawed because the crash of confidence that was behind all of the aforementioned crises was a crash in the confidence of the value of REAL THINGS. To be sure, there was speculation, and prices collapsed, and the financial system froze up as a result, but still, behind all the speculation, there were real things, of real value. So, no matter how bad things got, everyone in the system knew that they would be holding a real asset with some non-zero value - or paper backed by the same. The promise of value did not constitute value in and of itself. And even when there were not real assets to back up a promise of future value (bonds, paper, etc.), the lender of funds was compelled by self interest to insure that the expectation of future value was realistic and believable. This "crisis" is a crisis of confidence in the value of paper assets that have, essentially, no value at all. Zero. SO... Like musical chairs, whoever winds upholding them at the end loses EVERYTHING.
Of course there was also a time, not long ago, when real value was thought to be an integral component of value itself. And real businesses, which produced real products, were considered honorable and desirable and respectable. Now, the "Captains of Industry" (Carnegie, Ford, DuPont, etc) i.e., those who actually MADE things, have been replaced by the "Masters of the Universe", a comic-book sounding term used to describe the current batch of disgraceful bastards on Wall Street who bring to the table not any real productivity, but rather the self-inflated ability to pass worthless assets back and forth, inflating their value with each transaction, all to line their own pockets and scam the poor dumb bastards down below who operate under the pathetic belief that the price you pay for something has some connection to it's real value.
Think of it this way.... Say, for instance, I were to go into the woods to answer natures call, and find an expired (and losing) lottery ticket. An absolutely worthless piece of paper. BUT.... being unscrupulous and enterprising person, I find a gullible looking man o the street, and tell him that the ticket is a five-dollar winner, but if he will give me two-fifty for it, he can cash it in later for five. He, being gullible, believes me, and give me the two-fifty in cash. Then, he decides to "improve his position" and finds another person, tells him that the ticket is a $25 winner, but sells it to him for $12.50 cash, thus more than doubling his money, This happens two more times, and someone will be holding what they think is a $200 ticket, which is essentially and truly worthless. But then, the word gets out.... the lottery ticket that's being pedaled on "the street" is worthless, and all of a sudden, the holder of the ticket can't find a buyer. He's out $100, but he claims to be out $200! Because the ticket is "on his books" as a $200 asset. That is where we are today in the financial markets, except, of course that, instead of gullible street people, we have the "masters of the universe" and instead of two hundred bucks, we are dealing with trillions of them.
That is where we are until last week, that is. Last week, the United States Government agreed to come in and essentially buy the worthless ticket for some price, say.... $50. Which means that we, the taxpayers, just essentially gave away $50 - plain and simple. It also means that "traders" (we used to call them dumbasses) made a hundred bucks ($2.50+$10.00+$12.50+$25.00+50.00) trading worthless paper. And all the while the $100-paying dumbass is squealing about losing fifty bucks. Gotta Love that. He was stupid enough to pay $100 for a worthless piece of paper, knowing full well it was worthless, because he thought he could find another sucker. And now, that hubris, that moral bankruptcy, is supposed to be my fault, and I AM SUPPOSED TO BAIL HIM OUT!!!! Making certain, of course, that his billion-dollar personal wealth remains intact.
The comparisons are inadequate because nothing in the history of the modern financial system comes anywhere near the scale of this crisis. The numbers are unimaginable. So much money that, if all of the governments in all the world poured cash into the system, there would still be more worthless paper than there would be cash.
It is for these reasons that, no matter what the consequences, the inpending "bail-out" is a disaster in progress. NOT a disaster waiting to happen, but a REAL disaster unfolding before our eyes. It made a big splash two days ago, but it is doomed to fail. There is simply no way to make it big enough to make a real difference. Sooner or later - more likely sooner - within weeks, that is, the whole thing will crash. The numbers say it has to. The emperor has no clothes, and everybody knows it now. The fact that the government is trying to convince us otherwise doesn't change that de-facto nakedness. That is why they should have done nothing.... Nothing for Bear Stearns, nothing for Fannie or Freddie, nothing for AIG, nothing for all of them. If the Dow falls to 6000, then so be it. That is where it belonged the whole time. Let it fall, let it crash, let it bottom, and then, once things have assumed their REAL value, start to build it back. Build it back based on reality, not on pure bullshit paper. It will be rough, yes, but sounder in the long run.
BUT NOW the government (or central banks) has "shot their load", when it DOES crash, not only will it be worse, but the only refuge, the last resort of government assistance will be gone. So we will have the 1930's without "relief". People will be broke, and broken, and hungry, and there will literally be nowhere to turn.
And when THAT happens, it is going to get ugly. Very ugly, very fast. So get ready. It's going to be a long, cold winter....
May God help us...
Fundamentally flawed because the crash of confidence that was behind all of the aforementioned crises was a crash in the confidence of the value of REAL THINGS. To be sure, there was speculation, and prices collapsed, and the financial system froze up as a result, but still, behind all the speculation, there were real things, of real value. So, no matter how bad things got, everyone in the system knew that they would be holding a real asset with some non-zero value - or paper backed by the same. The promise of value did not constitute value in and of itself. And even when there were not real assets to back up a promise of future value (bonds, paper, etc.), the lender of funds was compelled by self interest to insure that the expectation of future value was realistic and believable. This "crisis" is a crisis of confidence in the value of paper assets that have, essentially, no value at all. Zero. SO... Like musical chairs, whoever winds upholding them at the end loses EVERYTHING.
Of course there was also a time, not long ago, when real value was thought to be an integral component of value itself. And real businesses, which produced real products, were considered honorable and desirable and respectable. Now, the "Captains of Industry" (Carnegie, Ford, DuPont, etc) i.e., those who actually MADE things, have been replaced by the "Masters of the Universe", a comic-book sounding term used to describe the current batch of disgraceful bastards on Wall Street who bring to the table not any real productivity, but rather the self-inflated ability to pass worthless assets back and forth, inflating their value with each transaction, all to line their own pockets and scam the poor dumb bastards down below who operate under the pathetic belief that the price you pay for something has some connection to it's real value.
Think of it this way.... Say, for instance, I were to go into the woods to answer natures call, and find an expired (and losing) lottery ticket. An absolutely worthless piece of paper. BUT.... being unscrupulous and enterprising person, I find a gullible looking man o the street, and tell him that the ticket is a five-dollar winner, but if he will give me two-fifty for it, he can cash it in later for five. He, being gullible, believes me, and give me the two-fifty in cash. Then, he decides to "improve his position" and finds another person, tells him that the ticket is a $25 winner, but sells it to him for $12.50 cash, thus more than doubling his money, This happens two more times, and someone will be holding what they think is a $200 ticket, which is essentially and truly worthless. But then, the word gets out.... the lottery ticket that's being pedaled on "the street" is worthless, and all of a sudden, the holder of the ticket can't find a buyer. He's out $100, but he claims to be out $200! Because the ticket is "on his books" as a $200 asset. That is where we are today in the financial markets, except, of course that, instead of gullible street people, we have the "masters of the universe" and instead of two hundred bucks, we are dealing with trillions of them.
That is where we are until last week, that is. Last week, the United States Government agreed to come in and essentially buy the worthless ticket for some price, say.... $50. Which means that we, the taxpayers, just essentially gave away $50 - plain and simple. It also means that "traders" (we used to call them dumbasses) made a hundred bucks ($2.50+$10.00+$12.50+$25.00+50.00) trading worthless paper. And all the while the $100-paying dumbass is squealing about losing fifty bucks. Gotta Love that. He was stupid enough to pay $100 for a worthless piece of paper, knowing full well it was worthless, because he thought he could find another sucker. And now, that hubris, that moral bankruptcy, is supposed to be my fault, and I AM SUPPOSED TO BAIL HIM OUT!!!! Making certain, of course, that his billion-dollar personal wealth remains intact.
The comparisons are inadequate because nothing in the history of the modern financial system comes anywhere near the scale of this crisis. The numbers are unimaginable. So much money that, if all of the governments in all the world poured cash into the system, there would still be more worthless paper than there would be cash.
It is for these reasons that, no matter what the consequences, the inpending "bail-out" is a disaster in progress. NOT a disaster waiting to happen, but a REAL disaster unfolding before our eyes. It made a big splash two days ago, but it is doomed to fail. There is simply no way to make it big enough to make a real difference. Sooner or later - more likely sooner - within weeks, that is, the whole thing will crash. The numbers say it has to. The emperor has no clothes, and everybody knows it now. The fact that the government is trying to convince us otherwise doesn't change that de-facto nakedness. That is why they should have done nothing.... Nothing for Bear Stearns, nothing for Fannie or Freddie, nothing for AIG, nothing for all of them. If the Dow falls to 6000, then so be it. That is where it belonged the whole time. Let it fall, let it crash, let it bottom, and then, once things have assumed their REAL value, start to build it back. Build it back based on reality, not on pure bullshit paper. It will be rough, yes, but sounder in the long run.
BUT NOW the government (or central banks) has "shot their load", when it DOES crash, not only will it be worse, but the only refuge, the last resort of government assistance will be gone. So we will have the 1930's without "relief". People will be broke, and broken, and hungry, and there will literally be nowhere to turn.
And when THAT happens, it is going to get ugly. Very ugly, very fast. So get ready. It's going to be a long, cold winter....
May God help us...
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Life Goes On - Updated
It has been nearly a month since I last posted. Wow... Based on all of the twists and turns of the world since then, not to mention those in my life personally, that is no surprise. It seems, having blogged for a couple of years now, and read blogs for a bit longer than that, that there are some people who take the stress in their lives and turn it into something of a muse-fountain and turn up the blog output as a result.
I am not one of them. I take stress, and turn it inward, and lose most - if not all - my inspiration. I think of PLENTY of things that I want to say, but cannot for the life of me figure out how to say them. So they just sit. And fester.
For example, a bit over two weeks ago, I was told that the following Wednesday (Sept 3rd) that our company would be laying off a large number of people. I spent five days wondering if I was on that list. Well, Wednesday came, and I was not. But I did get a 20% pay / hour cut, as did all of the remaining folks. A tough thing to handle, but not as tough as 100%. My thoughts and prayers are with those on the list. And with those of us whose fate - barring a serious upturn in the economy - is destined to be the same in a few months. I should be "secure" until about Christmas, at least. And I use the word "secure" very very lightly.
Anyway. So goes life. I don't want to sound whiny. Just want to explain the situation. I know it's a long way from "Brother can you spare a Dime", but it does weigh on the mind when you have the mouths to feed that I do.
I am not one of them. I take stress, and turn it inward, and lose most - if not all - my inspiration. I think of PLENTY of things that I want to say, but cannot for the life of me figure out how to say them. So they just sit. And fester.
For example, a bit over two weeks ago, I was told that the following Wednesday (Sept 3rd) that our company would be laying off a large number of people. I spent five days wondering if I was on that list. Well, Wednesday came, and I was not. But I did get a 20% pay / hour cut, as did all of the remaining folks. A tough thing to handle, but not as tough as 100%. My thoughts and prayers are with those on the list. And with those of us whose fate - barring a serious upturn in the economy - is destined to be the same in a few months. I should be "secure" until about Christmas, at least. And I use the word "secure" very very lightly.
Anyway. So goes life. I don't want to sound whiny. Just want to explain the situation. I know it's a long way from "Brother can you spare a Dime", but it does weigh on the mind when you have the mouths to feed that I do.
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