It's All Just a Matter of Trust

Amid all the blathering on in the press and the political world about the ongoing budget / Debt Limit battle, the essence of the problem at hand is (predicably) overlooked completely.

Ther real problem has nothing to do with taxes, spending cuts, entitlements, etc. Those could all be dealt with with little problem. All it takes is the motivation to do so. The problem is that those in charge on both sides of the aisle have over the past generation condcuted an all out campaign to discount and demonize the other. And by all out, I mean ALL-OUT. The mantra has been "there is no terrible way to win, there is only - winning"* No lie or distortion was seen as to much. Nixon, with all his dirty tricks, was little league - or a T-Ball league - by comparison to the deceitful, lying pack of coyotes that run things in D.C. now.

BUT... Time moves on, and sooner or later the game is up. Or rather NOW the game is up. NOW we need leadership, NOW we need men who, in spite of their differences, can trust each other to make a deal work. But those men (and women) are long gone. The Honor that the old ones carried is gone - for good - and the newcomers, some of whom still have Honor, are kept as far away from any real power as possible. So, the leadership, being small, deceitful, selfish men, the current batch of selfish idiots lack the abuility to fix themselves and the situation.

THEY CANNOT TRUST EACH OTHER BECAUSE THEY KNOW THAT THEY ARE NOT THEMSELVES TRUSTWOTHY AND THEY EXPECT THAT THE OTHERS ALL ARE TOO.

So like the mutinous crew on a ship of old, they threw the Captain overboard so that they could enjoy the power. But now they have discovered that the Captain was the only one who could navigate, and they are lost at see. The bright young scrawny kid swabbing the deck has some idea how to navigate, and could save them, but to put him in charge would make them all seem like the weak, bombastic, selfish fools that they are. Better, think they, to remain lost and die at sea with your ego intact, deep in denial, than to have accept your own miserable failure.

God Help Us All...

ON THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS

Recent economic news about the problem brewing of a "Lost Generation" prompts me to write on a subject which I have been contemplating for some time now - or is at least closely related thereto. The problem, as described in some detail here and here, that the older generation of workers in this country isn't going anywhere - thus "plugging the system" and not leaving any job openings for the youngest (entry level) generation.

It is time to examine the whole concept of retirement - or at least the modern version. It is obviously understandable that as we age, our abilities change, especially in more physical endeavors. Yet that would seem to lead on toward changing jobs over a lifetime - not quitting entirely. But what has developed in the US (at least) is the idea that, in the middle of a productive life, one should just give up and enjoy 100% leisure for the remaining part of your life. Worse yet, given modern life spans and pension plans, that may amount to 25% or more of a productive life. This leads to things like the "30 and out" process I see among some colleagues, wherein, having finished college at - say - age 22, they put in their 30 years and at the ripe old age of 52 years old, retire and spend the next 30-plus years doing nothing other than "killing time" and playing.

Any objective reading of the situation has to show the insanity and absurdity of such an arrangement. First, in many fields, the 50-some years old are the best, most educated, valuable part of a work force. To take a 55 year old engineer, or manager, or teacher, etc. and put them "out to pasture" is to discard 15 years of their most knowledgable, productive time. To be replaced by a 20-something "greenhorn" who will need years of learning to be as productive as the old-timer they replaced.

Economically speaking, a society - or civilization - cannot succeed where one fourth of the productive value of each (or most) member is simply discarded. It unsustainable - period. THe only reason is has worked out this way for the past two generations is that they have been the beneficiaries of the unbelievable economic growth and thrift which was produced by their ancestors in the past 100 years. They are the ones who have been standing on the shoulders of giants. But as the markets tank and the economy stagnates that model simply no longer works. This system will have to be discarded - sooner rather than later. And when, here in the United States, millions of "baby boomers" are facing the reality that they may actually have to work years longer than they thought, sooner may actually be now.

The tantalizing side story is centered around the fact that the "boomers" are completely oblivious to the fact that they ARE "standing on the shoulders of giants". They think THEY did it all! And more than anything, that reality, which they by-and-large refuse to face is about to be thrust upon them - aggressively - by the generation under 40 who are about to refuse to "pay the freight" for their insanely wealthy parent's generation. I may be wrong - and I hope that I am - but this is going to get ugly.

Making Sense

After months and months of reading (and hearing) so much "irrational exuberance" (i.e. crack-smoking) from the so-called "business press". FINALLY some one makes a little bit of sense.

READ THIS

The truly amazing thing is that the fourth estate has been able to blow so much smoke for so long about the alleged "recovery". This mindless optimism can only be explained by either a true malice and intent to misinform or a complete insular within-the-Wall-Street mindset - only getting information from other insiders.

Boundary Law and Common Sense

Years ago, when I first began to learn about the legal aspects of surveying law and boundary law, my mentor in the Profession taught me one simple concept - one which I teach to my students every year. This precept - or way of understanding - is stated as this:

You only own what you are willing to defend.

In otherwords, in terms of property law, if you are not willing to stop your neighbor from using your land as if it were his, then it really isn't yours - you have voluntarily given up your rights to claim it as your exclusive property. Yes, there is A LOT more detail and nuance to the process than that, but it still all boils down to that one concept.

It has occured to me that the same concept can be applied in a macro sense to the ongoing immigration debate, whcih is stirring up anew because of the new reasonable an justified law in Arizona. If you are not willing to defend the integrity of your countries borders, you don't really get to claim it as yours any more! It seems that the STATE of Arizona has suddenly discovered the gonadal fortitude to do for itself what the Federal Govenment has refused to do - defend its borders. Good for them!!!!

And this doesn't have a damn thing to do with humanitarian concerns, or love of your neighbor. And this is not racist in any way, either. It's just simple good sense and prudence. If you won't defend it, it ain't yours. That rule applies to every piece of property on earth, be it material, intellectual, or anything else. And nothing in this applies to the concept that you may voluntarily decide to let someone have your property. But there is a fundamental difference from, say, letting a down-and-out friend live in your spare bedroom and leaving the doors of your house open with a "help yourself" sign in the frontyard. Or between writing a check to the Rescue Mission and having a wino steal your checkbook and help himself to your bank account.

FOLKS, THIS DOESN'T HAVE TO BE HARD!!!!!!

It's the economy, stupid....

That famous line from the 1992 presidential campaign is what made Bill Clinton the 42nd President of the United States. The line consitutes a more modern and sophisticated version of Nixon's old line that "elections are determined by the price of pork bellies in Chicago". The economy is the foundation of every aspect of our power and identity as a nation - and our ability to continue to exist as one. If the economy is good, most everything else will fall into place. If it isn't - nothing else matters.

Today, as I have for the last few weeks (thanks to the weakness in said economy) I had the opportunity to watch as the Dow Jones plummeted even as Treasury Secretary Paulson was offering his rote assurancees that everything was under control and it would all be fine. I believe that it is worthy of note that the markets tank nearly every time he, or any other government official speaks. Perhaps it's because the very fact that they are speaking about the subject means that it is still a problem which is out of control.

There is an old saying that goes "when your only took is a hammer, pretty soon all your problems start to look like nails". Seeing Paulson, Bernanke, et al speak now is a sad and loud and garish real-world expression of that old proverb. They have cut interest rates and pumped billions of dollars into the oconomy, and each time it has had essentially zero affect. So, the answer - to them - is to cut more and pump more. And they will continue to do so until they can pump no more.

That is because the fundamental problem in the market - mark-to-market valuation - is was, and always shall be a lie. For years Wall Street has been operating under the assumption that any asset's value is determined solely on what one can theoretically sell it for. A good principle, but one with limitations. It only works if the buyers are well informed and make good decisions. There really is such a thing as intrinsic value. Just because some idiot somewhere pays $50,000 for a Toyota Corolla DOES NOT MEAN THAT EVERY OTHER COROLLA IS INSTANTLY WORTH $50,000. And now, sadly, the United States Government is in the position of having to pay (figuratively) $50,000 for a lot of Corollas while simultaneously trying to convince everyone else in the market that every other Corolla is a $50,000 car - and people are not that stupid. Not any more. And sooner or later they are going to hit the wall and lose their abnility to buy any more Corollas. People know that, and no amout of bluster on the part of Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, or anyone else is going to change that.

It is sad and frustrating and heartbreaking to watch this happen. To watch a great nation essentialy come unraveled because of the greed and hubris of a handful of elite business and government leaders.

AFTERMATH

I am sadly reminded today of my favorite John Wayne line, from Big Jake. After his estranged wife makes a fateful (and dangerous) decision, she asks for his input, to which The Duke replies:

"You decided alone. Now live it alone"

Today is sad not so much because of the fatefully bad, and horrendously uninformed decision that the electorate of this great country made yesterday - though it is horrile on so many different levels. It is sad because the idiots who elected Barack Obama will NOT have to "live it alone". The rest of us will have to live it right along with them.

It leaves me feeling like a rear-seat passenger in the car of a 16-year old who has had his license all of 4 days and is driving at high speed, at night, in the rain, in heavy traffic. You know how it is going to end up - a horrible, violent, deadly crash. But all you can do is cinch down your seat belt and hope you survive.

Or, to quote one more movie line:

"This is the kind of situation where something bad happens".

The Red Phone and The Scream

Four years ago, the Democratic Party seemed to have a nominee for the Presidency. He was intelligent, attractive, well-spoken, and experienced. He was the hand's down favorite of the core of the party. He was ahead in the polls going into the Iowa Caucuses. He had basically invented the idea of internet fund raising. And in retrospect he was the by-a-long-shot best candidate the party had to offer. Might even have made a damn good president. His name was Howard Dean.

Unfortunately, following a somewhat disappointing Iowa finish, he gave a concession speech which demolished his chances of winning. That because it ended with the famous red-faced manic scream - thereafter known as "The Dean Scream".

The reason it killed his campaign was simple (remember you saw it here first). As usual, the average man or woman picked up on it, while the elites in the press and politics were clueless. That thing known as common sense still exists out there. Just because the "political insiders" have scornfully sworn it off doesn't mean it has ceased to exist. Most common folk are immediately aware of the Emperor's lack of clothes.

Somewhere in the back of the minds of those common folk, they remember the football. They are aware, consciously or not, that the President of the United States is the man they are trusting to have his finger on "the button". And after seen the "Dean Scream" these common folk were not about to put anyone who appeared that unstable in charge of that awesome (and awful) responsibility.

Fast forward to 2008, and we find that Hillary Clinton, the poser of posers, has decided to play on those same instincts to try and derail the Obama Express. She has been running an ad (now famous) depicting her answering the phone in the White House at 3AM... The ad appears to be working to a limited extent, based on polling data anyway. We shall see the final results tonight! BUT the ad itself opens up a can of worms come November, where John McCain's astonishing experience make either Hillary or Obama look absolutely and hopelessly unprepared by comparison. He won't need to make a big deal out of it, or brag about it. His very existence carries with it the knowledge of his background and amazing story. Not just of his POW years, but since then both in the Navy and the senate. Yes, he's older, but old or not he is one tough son of a bitch. As the months wear on and November gets closer, people will start to think - really think - about that 3AM phone call, and I bet they'll like the thought of John McCain answering that phone a lot more than Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

Leadership

For some time I have been thinking about leadership. What does the term even mean? And how does it fit into our world today? I am not literally talking about the meaning of the word itself. Wikipedia describes it as "The ability to affect human behavior so as to accomplish a mission designated by the leader." I think that pretty much nails it. What I am talking about are the real world manifestations of leadership. Examples abound, both positive and negative.

On one side, let's look at President Bush. Yes, he's a leader, by default the President of the United States is a leader. But what to do with it? How to use it to your, and most especially (in this case) country's best interests? After 9-11-01, the country was more or less unified - practically begging for leadership. President Bush blew it. Yes, he did the right thing in deposing the Taliban, and Saddam, but screwed up practically everything else. First, he essentially told the country "Nothing to see here... Move along now to the mall and shop 'til you drop." In other words - EXACTLY the wrong thing. People being led want - no need - to feel as it they are a part of the struggle. To be told that you can and should pretend that life is status quo ante is not only absurd, it is counterproductive. "Freedom isn't free" but you can pretend it is!!! If people are sacrificing in some noticable way, they are more inclined to "buy in" to your idea and thus keep it on course even when the storms come. Then, to follow up on that blunder, he made matters infinitely worse by adopting a policy of never ever explaining anything about what was going on in the world and why he was making the decisions that he was. I call this the Loves Me Like a Rock based on the words of the song by the O'Jays:

And if I was president
The men of congress call my name
I'd say who do
Who do you think you're foolin
I got the presidential seal
I'm up on the presidential podium
My momma loves me
She loves me
She gets down on her knees and hugs me
Like she loves me like a rock

In other words - I'm the decider and I'm right, now shut the hell up.

Now... rewind to 1961. The United States is in the deepest, darkest hours of the cold war. Another superpower is threatening to eclipse the freedoms that we as americans hold dear. President Kennedy knows that if the Soviets can make America look weak, that their converts in the world will quickly multiply. He also knows that the military (i.e. nuclear) option is madness but the US must look like the "king of the hill" in the eyes of the world. And he know that the current technological rage of space exploration is the best - maybe the only way to capture the world's attention that way. Or as his Vice President put it "Mister President, America cannot afford to be in Second Place".

So the young president gives a speech to congress. I highly recommend that you read the whole text, but I will provide out takes, with my emphasis here:

"These are extraordinary times. And we face an extraordinary challenge. Our strength as well as our convictions have imposed upon this nation the role of leader in freedom's cause... No role in history could be more difficult or more important. We stand for freedom... Read: This is serious stuff

I therefore ask the Congress, above and beyond the increases I have earlier requested for space activities, to provide the funds which are needed to meet the following national goals:

First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important for the long-range exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish... Read: This is going to be a long and tough road.

Let it be clear--and this is a judgment which the Members of the Congress must finally make--let it be clear that I am asking the Congress and the country to accept a firm commitment to a new course of action, a course which will last for many years and carry very heavy costs: 531 million dollars in fiscal '62--an estimated seven to nine billion dollars additional over the next five years. If we are to go only half way, or reduce our sights in the face of difficulty, in my judgment it would be better not to go at all. Read: Don't start what you are unwilling to finish.

Now this is a choice which this country must make, and I am confident that under the leadership of the Space Committees of the Congress, and the Appropriating Committees, that you will consider the matter carefully.

It is a most important decision that we make as a nation. But all of you have lived through the last four years and have seen the significance of space and the adventures in space, and no one can predict with certainty what the ultimate meaning will be of mastery of space.

I believe we should go to the moon. But I think every citizen of this country as well as the Members of the Congress should consider the matter carefully in making their judgment, to which we have given attention over many weeks and months, because it is a heavy burden, and there is no sense in agreeing or desiring that the United States take an affirmative position in outer space, unless we are prepared to do the work and bear the burdens to make it successful. If we are not, we should decide today and this year.
Read: I repeat, this is going to be wildly difficult and expensive!!!


Notice the difference??? President Kennedy got the NATION working towards a goal, and investing in that goal. And as a result, not only did we not forget it after his death, we MADE IT HAPPEN, because we refused to do otherwise.

South Carolina Primary

I know that this is not a political blog, and I am not intending to make it such, but the results of Saturday's primary in South Carolina are definitely worthy of comment in any case, so comment I will.

First, I will state that I am now and have been since day one of this campaign a Mike Huckabee supporter. I am not fanatical about it, and I understand and admit that there are certain positions that he has taken, both now and in the past, that I am not exactly in agreement with. In other words, he is not "perfect" in my eyes. However, unlike some other (influential) conservatives, I am not ignorant enough to let that get in the way of my appreciating that he is the best, most well-rounded, most electable candidate in the field - in either party.

It is that ignorance, that myopic intrasigence, in deadly combination with selective memory and misinterpretation, that has made this fight for the nomination so absurd, and so frustrating. There are many in the media (most notably Rush Limbaugh), in concert with many "conservatives" who have made it their mission in life to aggressively try to discredit and disparage any candidate who does not fit into their contorted concept of what a conservative is. The logic goes like this: Ronald Reagan snd his conservatism made this party and this country great - that is the "Reagan Legacy". ANY candidate who tries to claim the leadership of this party and is not 100% in the "Reagan mold" is not a "true conservative" and will lead therefore lead the party to ruin. Huckabee (and Romney and McCain for that matter) are not "true conservatives" and therefore will bring the party to ruin. Therefore they must be destroyed at all costs. At ALL costs. These people would much rather see another eight years of Clintonia than see Huckabee in the White House.

The main problem in that lies in the premise. The iconic image of Ronald Reagan is a dominating force in conservative politics. In a sense that is a good thing. It helps to remember how yougot where you are. The problem is the Reagan the remember is one who never existed. Yes, he was for smaller government, less taxes, and a dtrong defense - but so are Huckabee and McCain. BUT Reagan was also for a government that works. A government that is on the side of the people - not business interests. The deregulation that was driven through by Reagan was not intended to enrich corporate america, it was meant to (and DID bya and large) enrich the average Joe - The Working Man.

The Working Man has become the forgotten man NOT because of Reagan and his efforts, but because the results of those efforts were co-opted by the spawn of the old Country Club Republicans. The old stuffy pipe-smoking Republican has been replaced by the BlackBerry wielding MBA republican. Fully convinced of his manifest destiny to control and define conservatism - and AMericanism for that matter. The rest of us in the party are looked upon as useful idiots who didn't go to the right schools and dont' "network" with the right people.

How have so many seemingly intelligent people forgotten the one phrase that brought Ronald Reagan to power in 1980:

"Just ask yourself: Are you better off than you were four years ago?"