Small Corrections, a term I keep repeating to myself when "flying" my flight simulator program. It's also a practice drilled into me by my flight instructor brother-in-law on those wonderful nights in a Cessna 152 so many years ago. The basic concept being that to stay on a smooth and level flying path one must use the controls smoothly and not too radically. Start yanking things around a lot and you get yourself in to trouble really fast. I have found the concept useful in many aspects of life - and equally hard to follow. When we see things going wrong our human instinct is to "yank on the controls" to get back to where we think we need to be.
The same rule applies to the Liturgy and Liturgical Reform in general. After the rapid, inconsiderate, and disastrous changes that occurred in the late 1960's when so much changed so rapidly, the importance of the Mass, properly celebrated, was largely forgotten. To be sure there were pockets here or there where people remembered the breathtaking gravity which the mass is, but there were great swaths wherein it became the religious equivalent of Thanksgiving Dinner ... "Happy are those who are called to His supper" ... it was even made to sound like Thanksgiving at Grandma's.
It was in that atmosphere where the celebration of the Mass more or less settled into a slow spiral down of sentimentality and sappiness. Vapid lyrics set to mediocre (at best) melodies. Homilies which didn't go much beyond the concept of "Jesus loves me this I know, 'cause the bible tells me so". Architecture less inspiring than a supermarket. An atmosphere in church less reverent - by far - than a movie theater. I could go on, but the point is that there was much that needed fixing.
It was also into that atmosphere that a whole generation of new priests were born - and continue to be. BUT these priests seem without exception to know that things are, shall we say, less than ideal. They also seem to know that Catholicism and Catholic Identity are important and needed in the world. That the Church is THE CHURCH and not just a big social program with Crucifixes in the offices. And they are smart - very very smart. They know what needs fixing and they are setting about to fix it, slowly, methodically, fixing it - using Small Corrections.
I have watched this evolution taking place over the last 6 years at Our Lady of Grace parish in my hometown. When the current administration took over it was not a great situation. The church building itself was the most inspiring and beautiful I have ever seen, but pretty much everything else was generic post 1970's blandness. BUT then, after a few months, the Small Corrections started. They continued slowly but relentlessly. The parishoners were allowed to "grow into" each change before another came. It has taken years - but it has taken hold. I have seen it. And it works, for example, at 10:00AM Sunday Mass last week, I witnessed the most dignified, inspiring Novus Ordo Mass I have seen in my entire life. The music was traditional hymns - good ones. The young Priest sung much of the Mass. The congregation sang their parts well and with passion. The homily was inspiring and germane to the occasion. And the whole atmosphere was just so... catholic.
In the traditionalist-catholic world, there are many who are ready to go in with torches and pitchforks and axes and "fix" the rest of the Catholic world. But that isn't a Small Correction, that is a huge yank on the wheel. The kind of yank which spins you out of control and into the ground. That is not what the Church needs. She needs Small Corrections.
AND, Thank God, She is getting them.
Saturday, June 2, 2012
Monday, February 20, 2012
Scheisshaus Economics II
Perhaps this post should be called "Scheisshaus Socio-Economics" but the combination of the unwieldy size with the desire for a tie-in with my previous post made for the change. Plus, I suppose it's just a subset of economics, so its just as well. The basic motive for the post is sort of an attempt to examine the "science" of economics and help describe how its development in the vacuum of academia has resulted in a long series of macroecomic decisions that are the root cause of so many of the societal woes the western world is experiencing about now.
Economics as a predictive science is highly effective. The evolution of economic theory has allowed us to understand much better how the systems of the world operate. Note that I say much better - no perfectly. Economic prediction is much like weather prediction in that it is subject to huge amounts of error at times, largely because of our limited ability to know, track and understand all of the data that go "into the mix". Nonetheless the modeling and widespread knowledge has allowed us to allocate resources in such a way as to increase the overall wealth of the world (or a country) astronomically.
The problem is that we are not countries, or nations, or states, but individuals and families. To a man who is newly laid off it is no comfort to know that the country overall is better off with his steel mill being relocated to the Pacific rim. All he know is that the family is depending on him and he has no work and no prospects. If you were to ask the economist about him the answer would be that he should be retrained to work in "the service economy", or learn to work in an "intellectual innovative environment" or some such drivel. THAT is where the vacuum in which the economist lives and works is such a problem. There are several fundamental problems with that.
First: Because of the economist (and economic) driven changes in the world (together with their co-conspirators on Wall Street and the accompanying Washington DC based enablers) there is likely no job for which he can be quickly retrained.
Second: Even under the best of circumstances, the retraining for any position of consequence - or comparable income - is going to take two years at a minimum. That is two whole years of a productive life just thrown away for nothing. Economically speaking he will be no more productive at the end of the retraining than he was at his old job at the steel mill. So FIVE PERCENT of his 40-year working life has been discarded needlessly.
Third: Chances are that, if there is any level of professional pride in him, that he will have been much more productive in his previous job as he will be in his new one - simply because of his level of expertise and experience. If you have any doubt about that think about the next time you hire a professional and ask yourself if you would rather hire the rookie or the one with the proven track record.
Fourth: With the changes in the world, economically speaking, being so many and so rapid, it is highly likely that the worker in question will have to go through the lay-off - retrain - relearn - gain proficiency cycle several times in a working life. And each cycle is accompanied by the associated loss of productivity. Add two more cycles and you have turned 40 VERY productive years into 31 somewhat productive ones.
All of this tumult - along with the not inconsiderable social costs - is ignored completely in the current world of economics. It is all simply written off with the statement that "he is better off in the end" ignoring the fact that the data is simply not there to support that.
I can appreciate that the social casts of this disruption are hard to measure and are in fact outside the economists area of practice - but the direct economic costs I have listed above are ignored completely as well. The reason for this I can only guess. The fact is that these (the economists) are VERY bright people. Sadly based on the evidence presented above, it appears that they are either blind to any facts which do not fit the models for which they have been trained, or they intentionally ignore the facts simply because those who patronize their profession have their own motives for continuing to proceed as we have.
You Decide...
NEXT INSTALLMENT: THE SOCIAL COSTS
NEXT
Economics as a predictive science is highly effective. The evolution of economic theory has allowed us to understand much better how the systems of the world operate. Note that I say much better - no perfectly. Economic prediction is much like weather prediction in that it is subject to huge amounts of error at times, largely because of our limited ability to know, track and understand all of the data that go "into the mix". Nonetheless the modeling and widespread knowledge has allowed us to allocate resources in such a way as to increase the overall wealth of the world (or a country) astronomically.
The problem is that we are not countries, or nations, or states, but individuals and families. To a man who is newly laid off it is no comfort to know that the country overall is better off with his steel mill being relocated to the Pacific rim. All he know is that the family is depending on him and he has no work and no prospects. If you were to ask the economist about him the answer would be that he should be retrained to work in "the service economy", or learn to work in an "intellectual innovative environment" or some such drivel. THAT is where the vacuum in which the economist lives and works is such a problem. There are several fundamental problems with that.
First: Because of the economist (and economic) driven changes in the world (together with their co-conspirators on Wall Street and the accompanying Washington DC based enablers) there is likely no job for which he can be quickly retrained.
Second: Even under the best of circumstances, the retraining for any position of consequence - or comparable income - is going to take two years at a minimum. That is two whole years of a productive life just thrown away for nothing. Economically speaking he will be no more productive at the end of the retraining than he was at his old job at the steel mill. So FIVE PERCENT of his 40-year working life has been discarded needlessly.
Third: Chances are that, if there is any level of professional pride in him, that he will have been much more productive in his previous job as he will be in his new one - simply because of his level of expertise and experience. If you have any doubt about that think about the next time you hire a professional and ask yourself if you would rather hire the rookie or the one with the proven track record.
Fourth: With the changes in the world, economically speaking, being so many and so rapid, it is highly likely that the worker in question will have to go through the lay-off - retrain - relearn - gain proficiency cycle several times in a working life. And each cycle is accompanied by the associated loss of productivity. Add two more cycles and you have turned 40 VERY productive years into 31 somewhat productive ones.
All of this tumult - along with the not inconsiderable social costs - is ignored completely in the current world of economics. It is all simply written off with the statement that "he is better off in the end" ignoring the fact that the data is simply not there to support that.
I can appreciate that the social casts of this disruption are hard to measure and are in fact outside the economists area of practice - but the direct economic costs I have listed above are ignored completely as well. The reason for this I can only guess. The fact is that these (the economists) are VERY bright people. Sadly based on the evidence presented above, it appears that they are either blind to any facts which do not fit the models for which they have been trained, or they intentionally ignore the facts simply because those who patronize their profession have their own motives for continuing to proceed as we have.
You Decide...
NEXT INSTALLMENT: THE SOCIAL COSTS
NEXT
Monday, September 26, 2011
Scheisshaus Market Analyst
With the current economic fiasco slowly unfolding around the world, what is needed is the perspective and understanding to hepl the uninitiated cut through all of the fog and misinformation surrounding the news with which we are inundated on a daily basis. So this post is to offer just that - the quick and dirty truth to what is going on.
The First Rule to remember is this: The daily ups and downs of "the market" have absolutely nothing to do with he economic health of the country or the world. The stock markets or commodities markets are merely a vast money making machine used to "score" monies from the many (us) to the few (insiders) - period. It has absolutely nothing to do with raising capital or any other honorable endeavour. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either lying or stupid or more likely both. This concept was more eloquently stated by Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban in this interview. I know little of Mr. Cuban, but when a man is right, he's right. I have know and understood this for some time, so it isn't an idea I stole from him. It is only the fusillade of "business news" which overwhelms us every day which keep our common sense at bay and tries to keep us in the game. Just think of the excitement around a "hot" craps table, which only serves to keep the other players putting down their chips to understand this media and Wall Street driven set up.
The Second Rule (or maybe corollary to the first) is this: Once Upon A Time, businesses were run by people who cared about their long-term success, the first rule did not apply. Stock prices (and thus the markets) were driven by a clear understanding of long term stable growth. Great investors got wealthy by picking, buying, and holding good, sound stocks and holding them long term. Stock prices were based on that expectation - not on whether they could be "flipped" in a day - or minute - for a quick profit. As a result, the aggregate stock prices, reflected as "the market" was a relatively accurate reflection of the health of the business and industrial base - and the economy at large. No Longer.
The Third Rule is: Since the markets are now truly disconnected from the economy at large, they are able to assume any value. These values have no relationship to reality at all. As a result, over a period of years they have assumed astronomical values, as every trader was constantly on the prowl for someone to whom he could "flip" a stock for a quick turn. Like a mad bidding war at an auction, the items were selling for many many times more than they were worth. Now we find ourselves in a situation where we have a worldwide work of fiction in place of sound economies. This is why the markets, and the economic news lurches from one crisis to another - because there is no truth to any of it, it is subject to the least rumour or hint or tease of information.
The Fourth Rule is: Until the fiction of the current stock and investment market are replaced by sound economic forces, policies, and information, nothing else will matter. That means that all of the crap you read about "euro-zone bailouts" or stimulus, or bull markets, or "opportunities" is just that - crap, feces, poop, choose your personal favorite fecal slang. That is because until then, capital is just "chasing the flip" for lack of a better term. And the misallocation of capital is the prime issue behind the funk we are in and until that is fixed, nothing else matters. Think of this as a deathly sick hospital patient, whose treatment options are all but gone. All that can be done is to "make them comfortable" and hope against hope that they will recover. That's where we are now, in a worldwide, government-driven quest to "make us comfortable". That's because that's all there is for them to do. When the markets slow down and the prices and volumes stabilize, then and only then can any economic health begin to take hold.
Well, there you have it. The First Four concepts in my version of Real Econ 101.
The First Rule to remember is this: The daily ups and downs of "the market" have absolutely nothing to do with he economic health of the country or the world. The stock markets or commodities markets are merely a vast money making machine used to "score" monies from the many (us) to the few (insiders) - period. It has absolutely nothing to do with raising capital or any other honorable endeavour. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either lying or stupid or more likely both. This concept was more eloquently stated by Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban in this interview. I know little of Mr. Cuban, but when a man is right, he's right. I have know and understood this for some time, so it isn't an idea I stole from him. It is only the fusillade of "business news" which overwhelms us every day which keep our common sense at bay and tries to keep us in the game. Just think of the excitement around a "hot" craps table, which only serves to keep the other players putting down their chips to understand this media and Wall Street driven set up.
The Second Rule (or maybe corollary to the first) is this: Once Upon A Time, businesses were run by people who cared about their long-term success, the first rule did not apply. Stock prices (and thus the markets) were driven by a clear understanding of long term stable growth. Great investors got wealthy by picking, buying, and holding good, sound stocks and holding them long term. Stock prices were based on that expectation - not on whether they could be "flipped" in a day - or minute - for a quick profit. As a result, the aggregate stock prices, reflected as "the market" was a relatively accurate reflection of the health of the business and industrial base - and the economy at large. No Longer.
The Third Rule is: Since the markets are now truly disconnected from the economy at large, they are able to assume any value. These values have no relationship to reality at all. As a result, over a period of years they have assumed astronomical values, as every trader was constantly on the prowl for someone to whom he could "flip" a stock for a quick turn. Like a mad bidding war at an auction, the items were selling for many many times more than they were worth. Now we find ourselves in a situation where we have a worldwide work of fiction in place of sound economies. This is why the markets, and the economic news lurches from one crisis to another - because there is no truth to any of it, it is subject to the least rumour or hint or tease of information.
The Fourth Rule is: Until the fiction of the current stock and investment market are replaced by sound economic forces, policies, and information, nothing else will matter. That means that all of the crap you read about "euro-zone bailouts" or stimulus, or bull markets, or "opportunities" is just that - crap, feces, poop, choose your personal favorite fecal slang. That is because until then, capital is just "chasing the flip" for lack of a better term. And the misallocation of capital is the prime issue behind the funk we are in and until that is fixed, nothing else matters. Think of this as a deathly sick hospital patient, whose treatment options are all but gone. All that can be done is to "make them comfortable" and hope against hope that they will recover. That's where we are now, in a worldwide, government-driven quest to "make us comfortable". That's because that's all there is for them to do. When the markets slow down and the prices and volumes stabilize, then and only then can any economic health begin to take hold.
Well, there you have it. The First Four concepts in my version of Real Econ 101.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
New Series!!!
The whole point of a blog (or any writing really) is to say something that the writer feels needs to be said. This blog started of with a focus on the liturgy and the Church. Both good and important subjects - but there are other things that in fact, the author feels need to be said. In the past I have rambled on about various subjects not Church related, but now I intend to focus more on some things and in a more organized and systematic fashion. So allow me to introduce:
The Scheisshaus Series!
A series of essays and observations on human nature, civilization, society, and life in todays world.
The name is a adaptation in German of "S**thouse Philosopher" a term of derision my father used to use years ago to describe an individual who holds forth on a subject about which he may or may not technically have any knowledge but desperately wants to be perceived as having such. In my case, I have NO pretense about my expertise or qualifications and am in no way trying to come across as such. I am just a man who observes things, thinks about them and then sometimes, comes up with something that simply needs to be said.
So stay tuned to these pages over the next few weeks. Because this has been building up in my head for a while now, but the time wasn't there to hammer it all out. But now I have been moved to start, and there is a backlog of "mental essays" that need to make it out onto the ether.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
It's All Just a Matter of Trust
Amid all the blathering on in the press and the political world about the ongoing budget / Debt Limit battle, the essence of the problem at hand is (predicably) overlooked completely.
Ther real problem has nothing to do with taxes, spending cuts, entitlements, etc. Those could all be dealt with with little problem. All it takes is the motivation to do so. The problem is that those in charge on both sides of the aisle have over the past generation condcuted an all out campaign to discount and demonize the other. And by all out, I mean ALL-OUT. The mantra has been "there is no terrible way to win, there is only - winning"* No lie or distortion was seen as to much. Nixon, with all his dirty tricks, was little league - or a T-Ball league - by comparison to the deceitful, lying pack of coyotes that run things in D.C. now.
BUT... Time moves on, and sooner or later the game is up. Or rather NOW the game is up. NOW we need leadership, NOW we need men who, in spite of their differences, can trust each other to make a deal work. But those men (and women) are long gone. The Honor that the old ones carried is gone - for good - and the newcomers, some of whom still have Honor, are kept as far away from any real power as possible. So, the leadership, being small, deceitful, selfish men, the current batch of selfish idiots lack the abuility to fix themselves and the situation.
THEY CANNOT TRUST EACH OTHER BECAUSE THEY KNOW THAT THEY ARE NOT THEMSELVES TRUSTWOTHY AND THEY EXPECT THAT THE OTHERS ALL ARE TOO.
So like the mutinous crew on a ship of old, they threw the Captain overboard so that they could enjoy the power. But now they have discovered that the Captain was the only one who could navigate, and they are lost at see. The bright young scrawny kid swabbing the deck has some idea how to navigate, and could save them, but to put him in charge would make them all seem like the weak, bombastic, selfish fools that they are. Better, think they, to remain lost and die at sea with your ego intact, deep in denial, than to have accept your own miserable failure.
God Help Us All...
Ther real problem has nothing to do with taxes, spending cuts, entitlements, etc. Those could all be dealt with with little problem. All it takes is the motivation to do so. The problem is that those in charge on both sides of the aisle have over the past generation condcuted an all out campaign to discount and demonize the other. And by all out, I mean ALL-OUT. The mantra has been "there is no terrible way to win, there is only - winning"* No lie or distortion was seen as to much. Nixon, with all his dirty tricks, was little league - or a T-Ball league - by comparison to the deceitful, lying pack of coyotes that run things in D.C. now.
BUT... Time moves on, and sooner or later the game is up. Or rather NOW the game is up. NOW we need leadership, NOW we need men who, in spite of their differences, can trust each other to make a deal work. But those men (and women) are long gone. The Honor that the old ones carried is gone - for good - and the newcomers, some of whom still have Honor, are kept as far away from any real power as possible. So, the leadership, being small, deceitful, selfish men, the current batch of selfish idiots lack the abuility to fix themselves and the situation.
THEY CANNOT TRUST EACH OTHER BECAUSE THEY KNOW THAT THEY ARE NOT THEMSELVES TRUSTWOTHY AND THEY EXPECT THAT THE OTHERS ALL ARE TOO.
So like the mutinous crew on a ship of old, they threw the Captain overboard so that they could enjoy the power. But now they have discovered that the Captain was the only one who could navigate, and they are lost at see. The bright young scrawny kid swabbing the deck has some idea how to navigate, and could save them, but to put him in charge would make them all seem like the weak, bombastic, selfish fools that they are. Better, think they, to remain lost and die at sea with your ego intact, deep in denial, than to have accept your own miserable failure.
God Help Us All...
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Oldie But Goodie...
Several Years Ago, I became dismayed by the almost pathological fixation that the traditionalist community had with the externals of the Mass. I wrote a post about it, Clowns to the Left of Me, Kooks to the Right wherein I vented my spleen on such pettiness and the perpetrators thereof.
Of course, over the years, little has changed in that regard, at least on the part of the "old hands". Interestingly enough, the newbies, those who only recently (often post Summorum Pontificum) began to experience the Extraordinary Form don't seem nearly as obsessive about vestments, or who the music arrangement was by, etc. They are more than happy to appreciate the holiness and beauty just as it is - to take it as it comes and thank God for it.
That is a GOOD thing. Yes, the externals matter - look at a gothic cathedral - but they are only useful to expand on the beauty of the truth of The Mass. When the externals become THE important part, you have lost the meaning - period.
This all comes to mind because of the comments on a post by The Great Father Z. wherein he asked about the presence or absence of music in a Low Mass. In my opinion, it has no place at all, but I accept that other opinions vary, and I respect that. What galls is the implication by so many that a Mass without Music is somehow lacking.
GOD HIMSELF IS PRESENT ON THE ALTAR!!!
If anyone thinks that is somehow inadequate because there is no singing, then maybe they have an understanding of the Church, and of Catholicism, that needs serious help.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
ON THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS
Recent economic news about the problem brewing of a "Lost Generation" prompts me to write on a subject which I have been contemplating for some time now - or is at least closely related thereto. The problem, as described in some detail here and here, that the older generation of workers in this country isn't going anywhere - thus "plugging the system" and not leaving any job openings for the youngest (entry level) generation.
It is time to examine the whole concept of retirement - or at least the modern version. It is obviously understandable that as we age, our abilities change, especially in more physical endeavors. Yet that would seem to lead on toward changing jobs over a lifetime - not quitting entirely. But what has developed in the US (at least) is the idea that, in the middle of a productive life, one should just give up and enjoy 100% leisure for the remaining part of your life. Worse yet, given modern life spans and pension plans, that may amount to 25% or more of a productive life. This leads to things like the "30 and out" process I see among some colleagues, wherein, having finished college at - say - age 22, they put in their 30 years and at the ripe old age of 52 years old, retire and spend the next 30-plus years doing nothing other than "killing time" and playing.
Any objective reading of the situation has to show the insanity and absurdity of such an arrangement. First, in many fields, the 50-some years old are the best, most educated, valuable part of a work force. To take a 55 year old engineer, or manager, or teacher, etc. and put them "out to pasture" is to discard 15 years of their most knowledgable, productive time. To be replaced by a 20-something "greenhorn" who will need years of learning to be as productive as the old-timer they replaced.
Economically speaking, a society - or civilization - cannot succeed where one fourth of the productive value of each (or most) member is simply discarded. It unsustainable - period. THe only reason is has worked out this way for the past two generations is that they have been the beneficiaries of the unbelievable economic growth and thrift which was produced by their ancestors in the past 100 years. They are the ones who have been standing on the shoulders of giants. But as the markets tank and the economy stagnates that model simply no longer works. This system will have to be discarded - sooner rather than later. And when, here in the United States, millions of "baby boomers" are facing the reality that they may actually have to work years longer than they thought, sooner may actually be now.
The tantalizing side story is centered around the fact that the "boomers" are completely oblivious to the fact that they ARE "standing on the shoulders of giants". They think THEY did it all! And more than anything, that reality, which they by-and-large refuse to face is about to be thrust upon them - aggressively - by the generation under 40 who are about to refuse to "pay the freight" for their insanely wealthy parent's generation. I may be wrong - and I hope that I am - but this is going to get ugly.
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